Ganduje Raises Dusts Over Osun, Oyo Take-over Plot

If anything, the contentious defeat of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Edo State has enhanced the chances of All Progressives Congress (APC), to reclaim more states. In this analysis, SOLA ADEYEMO and AYOBAMI AGBOOLA write that the development now poses a huge challenge to the Governor Seyi Makinde-led PDP leadership in the region

The All Progressives Congress (APC) may have stirred the hornet’s nest with its recent threat to capture Oyo and Osun states ahead of the general election. It was buoyed by its success in the governorship polls in Edo State.

Disclosing that the party has been calculating and strategizing on how to reclaim the entire Southwest states into APC fold, National Chairman of the party, Abudulahi Ganduje said the zone being that of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, will deliver 100 per cent. Ganduje spoke recently in Akure, the Ondo State capital, during a stakeholders’ meeting.

Some members of the APC national working committee (NWC), including Lucky Aiyedatiwa, governor of Ondo; Babajide Sanwo-Olu, governor of Lagos; and Biodun Oyebanji of Ekiti, attended the meeting.

The meeting was held ahead of the November 16 governorship election in Ondo. Aiyedatiwa is the flagbearer of the APC. The APC currently controls Ekiti, Ondo, Lagos, and Ogun—out of the six states in the south-west zone, while the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has two states—Oyo and Osun.

Ganduje said he would not reveal the party’s secret to win the governorship elections in Osun and Oyo, adding that the entire south-west must be behind Tinubu.

“In this geopolitical zone, we must deliver 100 percent in favour of APC; therefore, Ondo state must be at the forefront. The two other states, I will not reveal our secret, but we assure you, we are strategizing. Everything must be 100 per cent behind President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.”

Addressing aggrieved party members in Ondo, Ganduje appealed to them for the success of the APC in the November 16 governorship election in the state. He announced Sanwo-Olu as chairman of the national campaign council of the APC for the Ondo governorship election.

“We have made every arrangement at the national level to have a successful election. We are here to give you hope, encourage you, and that this election is a task that must be done. We are encouraged by this large crowd of stakeholders. This shows that there is unity, solidarity, and vigour in the party. Those who contested the primary are not losers because there is no victor and vanquished in the exercise.

“We are expecting 90 per cent total votes in the forthcoming governorship election. Visit house to house, neighbour to neighbour, and ensure that you go round and mobilize people to come out to vote.”

Gandije sparked reaction, just as it created what could be tagged as anxiety among the members of the ruling PDP in Osun and their loved ones. The party loyalists while making reference to the just concluded gubernatorial election in Edo State, where a ruling party was ousted as the power of incumbency failed to take its role in the determination of the election results.

Had Ganduje-led APC at the centre succeeded in taking over the Edo State? This among other questions have begun to beg for answers since the news of what the Kano state-born politician said, rented the air.

PDP: Ganduje’s vituperation may destabilize South-West

The Osun State chapter of People’s Democratic party told Ganduje to pay serious attention to the political history of the South-West to assist him in making informed lines while making public comments about the Southwest, calling on him to exercise caution in his desperate attempt to impress his party stalwarts.

The PDP cautioned Ganduje over such reckless utterances capable of igniting citizens’ which, in turn, could destabilize the country, saying Osun people will decide their Governor when the poll is opened for such exercise.

“For a man who could not salvage his home state for the APC, owing to his disastrous regime as governor of the state, to start threatening fire and brimstone in the South-West, is not only reckless but absolutely insane, the PDP Chairman” Hon Sunday Bisi said in a statement, he made available to New Telegraph while reacting to Ganduje’s comment.

The PDP Chairman described Ganduje’s postulation as a careless plot to plunge the Southwest into avoidable political turmoil in a country that is already on a stressed line of ethnic distrust and economic challenges.

“While Mr President continues to battle depressed state of the nation’s economy, Mr Ganduje should be careful not to compound the situation by attempting barefaced election rigging, especially in the Southwest, as doing so will be nothing but stepping on a very dangerous cobra’s tail”

“If Mallam Ganduje failed as he did, to cause war in Kano where the APC was discarded for his harrowing reign in the state, he should be ready to face and accept similar verdicts in other states where APC have failed the electorate”

“For us in Osun, we are used to such unstatesmanlike utterances, which resulted in a more disastrous outing for Ganduje’s party in the 2022 governorship election after his predecessor in office openly mandated APC thugs to invade and rig election in Osun. This, Mr Ganduje must remember, irked the highly intelligent people of the state by voting aggressively against the then APC candidate, Gboyega Oyetola. Same fate, we want to assure, awaits APC in Osun State”

‘Ganduje opens threat to democracy’

Sarafa Ibrahim, a Special Assistant to the Osun State Governor on Print Media with the comment credited to APC national chairman, Nigeria’s democracy has entered into a troubling phase, facing an uncertain future.

He further said: “And the source of the problem is in the disturbing posture of the National Chairman of the APC, Abdullahi Ganduje, which suggested that poll may no longer be the path to power any longer in Nigeria as democracy, everywhere, is known for.

“In this (South) geopolitical zone, we must deliver 100 percent in favour of APC. Therefore, Ondo State, you must be the forefront of the two other states–Oyo and Osun– we will capture them, but I will not reveal our secret. We are strategising. Everything must be 100 per cent behind President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu,” Ganduje was quoted to have said at a stakeholders’ meeting of the party in Akure on Sunday.

“But it is just not the Southwest that Ganduje has in mind for conquest. In August this year, Ganduje provided a stark overview of what the future of Nigeria’s democracy will look like by indicating that the APC will take Edo state, which will be followed by Anambra next year because “we (APC) have introduced a new scheme” and then go on to seal it by “encroaching into that (South-East) zone to ensure that we capture most of the states. And if we get what we want, we will capture all the states.”

“By capture, Ganduje was simply telling Nigerians that ballots may no longer be the means to decide leadership. This will mean that Nigeria is on its way to a one-party state, which many have feared is the ultimate goal of Ganduje and his party. It is frightening, right? But the truth, which is in plain view, is that Ganduje doesn’t seem to agree that the choice of leadership in a democracy solely rests with the people.

Internal crisis may play its roles

Osun State is not peculiar in the politics of South-West. Like her sister state, Ekiti. Osun is a serene agrarian state, devoid of all the cosmopolitan factors that tend to determine the voting pattern of Lagos, and to a larger extent, Ogun and Oyo states. Therefore, the coming governorship election may be fought on issues of ability to manage human resources.

Both parties have been battling with internal crisis with the members of the party defecting from one to another. The ruling PDP in Osun had recently lost a former Deputy National Chairman of the PDP, Alhaji Shuaib Oyedokun, to the leading opposition party, APC. Oyedokun, a notable personality within the political circle in Osun State and beyond, said he decided to dump the PDP after consultation with his loyalists.

He said he joined APC, where his experience, efforts, and leadership roles would be valued and appreciated.

Apart from Oyedokun, a former gubernatorial aspirant in Osun , Prince Dotun Baba Yemi alongside thousands of his supporters across the state defected to APC. Also, former House of representative candidate, Barrister Kayode Oduoye pitched his tent with APC, as if that is not enough, former Chief of Staff, Elder Peter Babalola, also dumped the ruling PDP and defected to the APC.

Makinde’s leadership under threat

Needless to say, Makinde is said to have been providing leadership to the PDP in the South-West, by repeatedly hosting and directing the zonal leadership of the party in the zone. Not only has he produced the Deputy National Chairman of the Party, Ambassador Taofeeq Arapaja and the Zonal Chairman of the Party, Eng. Kamorudeen Ajisafe, is his loyalist.

Besides, Makinde was instrumental to the election of Senator Adeleke as governor of Osun State, and is currently moving to replicate the feat in Ondo State come November 16. He is believed to have been providing the strategies and wherewithal to the PDP Campaign Organisation headed by a former zonal chairman of the party, Dr. Eddy Olafeso.

But the Ganduje threat to capture all the six states of the South-West including the PDP- controlled Oyo and Osun in 2027, have posed new challenges to Makinde’s leadership, and the future of PDP in the region where it once held sway. If both states are won by the APC like it was recently done in Edo state, the APC will have a smooth sail to return Tinubu in 2027.

The PDP through its National Publicity Secretary, Debo Ologunagba, had reacted, warning the ruling APC to stay away from Ondo State and that it should not get carried away with its last victory in Edo State. He boasted that the South West can neither be bought nor captured.

PDP and internal squabbles

Some have also argued that uniting PDP at the national level now to forge a common front before the election is a major challenge to the prospect of the party in Ondo. But Olafeso said: “We are one; we are better. We are back and better. We have lost some weight; we have lost some people that were not too sure of where they belong, and those jobbers that move from one party to another during every election cycle. They are gone. We are lean now, but better. We are mobile and we believe that the experience of our candidate is enough for us to queue behind and encourage him to do what is best for the people. Our party will dare to be more organised in the future and we are back better than before. So, believe me, we are a lot better than we were before the election in 2023.”

Wanting to ensure INEC does not compromise in the election, Makinde has challenged the impartiality of the national electoral umpire, when he alleged during a campaign in Akure, Ondo State, that the Resident Electoral Commissioner, Mrs. Toyin Babalola, is an indigene of Ondo and that she should be transferred because she would work against the PDP. Makinde had argued that Mrs. Babalola’s origin from Ondo State compromises the neutrality of the electoral process, thereby urging the INEC Chairman, Prof. Yakubu Mahmood, to replace her with someone who can ensure a fair election.

While the Ondo APC through its Publicity Secretary, Alex Kalejaiye, slammed him for the alleged inappropriate statement, saying that “Mrs Babalola had demonstrated “integrity, competence, and capacity” in her role since assuming office”, and that Makinde should stay out of Ondo political affairs, the INEC also described Makinde’s allegation as ‘incorrect’.

The electoral umpire said: “For the avoidance of doubt, Mrs Babalola is not from Ondo State, in line with the Commission’s policy not to deploy a REC to his or her state of origin, while also referring to a similar allegation made by Makinde in 2020, ahead of the governorship election in Ondo, where he accused a senior INEC official of colluding with a university Vice-Chancellor to influence the election outcome.

It further said, “In 2020, ahead of the last governorship election in the same state, Governor Makinde also accused a senior official of the Commission of working with the Vice-Chancellor of a federal university to undermine the election. The allegation was untrue”. It therefore urged prominent public figures to verify their claims before making “serial, unfounded allegations,” and called for caution in spreading unsubstantiated information.

With this festering scenario, and the power of incumbency of the ruling APC, the odds are stacked high for the PDP in the next month’s election in Ondo. And if the threat by Ganduje is anything to go by, observers believe that the chances of Makinde and Adeleke retaining Oyo and Osun states in 2027 may be slim. It may, however, propel PDP to up its gain, as they hope INEC and state agencies would not be cowed by the ruling APC to give reality to the threat.

Source: New Telegraph