Crossroads In The Land Of Imole: APC, And The Future Of Osun Politics By Muftau Adediran

In the heart of southwestern Nigeria, Osun simmers with a fresh political intrigue. Whispers echo through its towns and cities: Will Governor Ademola Adeleke defect to the All Progressives Congress (APC)?

It is a question that has sparked fierce debates in barber shops, town halls, and WhatsApp forums from Iwo to Ife. Though the man at the centre of it all—the dancing senator turned governor—has repeatedly waved off the rumour as “fake news,” its grip on Osun’s political consciousness is unmistakable. And its implications, should it ever materialise, are seismic.

A State Familiar with Political Crossovers

Party defection is not alien to Osun’s political landscape. Governor Adeleke himself once moved from APC to PDP in 2017, emerging as a senator after the tragic death of his brother, Senator Isiaka Adeleke. That political rebirth set the stage for his 2022 triumph over incumbent Gboyega Oyetola, returning Osun to PDP control in a tightly contested election.

But Osun politics is far more layered than party labels. Voters in the state are driven by loyalty, performance, and increasingly, personality. It is why Adeleke’s rumored flirtation with APC stirs both curiosity and apprehension. Could he be weighing the advantage of federal alignment under the Tinubu-led presidency? Or is this mere political theatre aimed at unsettling the opposition and testing loyalties within his own camp?

Denials and Dissonance

Governor Adeleke and his cabinet have strongly denied any plans to defect. Commissioners and advisers, in a rare display of cohesion, described the rumor as a “political fallacy,” pledging loyalty to the PDP and to Adeleke’s “Imole” governance vision. The governor himself called it a distraction, reaffirming that he is “100% PDP.”

Yet, opposition forces are not buying it. APC youth groups and party elders have voiced resistance to the idea, fearing it may deepen the party’s existing internal cracks. “Governor Adeleke’s entry would be a Trojan horse,” one APC loyalist warned. “He would win the battle but split us beyond repair.”

Political Calculus: What’s at Stake?

The 2026 governorship election looms large. For Adeleke, staying in PDP means preserving his identity as a people’s governor—the face of grassroots revival. A defection, while potentially offering federal backing, could backfire. He risks alienating the youth base that sees him as the anti-establishment hero, and invites rebellion within the APC, where loyalty to Oyetola or Aregbesola runs deep.

Electoral patterns in Osun suggest a tightrope. While PDP dominates Osun West and makes inroads in Central, APC maintains a foothold in Osun East. A divided APC or a weakened PDP could tip the balance. In this high-stakes chessboard, every pawn counts.

Voter Sentiment and the Adeleke Brand

Osun voters are no longer swayed by party slogans alone. Adeleke’s populist brand—dancing, accessible, responsive—has earned him street credibility. But performance, not performance art, will determine re-election.

If he defects, the question becomes: will the people follow the man, or the message?

Scenario Planning: The Road Ahead

If Adeleke stays in PDP: The party retains its grassroots core, potentially winning again in 2026—provided it avoids internal implosion and delivers on civil service reforms, youth empowerment, and infrastructure.

If he joins APC: The APC gains a powerful face but risks internal revolt. PDP could collapse temporarily or reinvent itself with a new candidate. The state would be plunged into political recalibration.

Conclusion: The Politics of Power, the Power of Politics

At the heart of this saga is more than rumor—it’s the dance between ambition and legacy. Adeleke stands at a crossroads. To defect or not is no longer just about party strategy; it’s about trust, perception, and the soul of Osun’s political identity.

Whether Imole remains the light within PDP or attempts to shine under a new banner, the people of Osun are watching. And in their hands lie the true power—not in defection or denial, but in the ballot.

Muftau Adediran
Deputy Editor-in-chief
Akure

Disclaimer: This piece represents the opinion of the writer not that of CityMirrorNews