₦605 Petrol Price Is Starting Point, We Can Cut It to ₦200–₦300 — Olawepo-Hashim

The presidential candidate of the Accord Party, Dr Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim, has said his proposed ₦605 per litre petrol price is only the starting point of a broader energy policy that could eventually reduce the price to between ₦200 and ₦300 per litre.

Olawepo-Hashim, who is campaigning on an “energy security first” agenda, said Nigeria could achieve cheaper petrol without returning to the opaque subsidy regime that existed before the 2023 fuel subsidy reform.

He made the position known in a statement issued on Monday, arguing that the fundamental question Nigeria should answer is not simply how much petrol sells for internationally, but how much it actually costs the country to produce crude, refine it and deliver the finished product to Nigerian consumers.

According to the presidential candidate’s campaign cost model, domestic crude production was put at $45 per barrel, comprising an NNPC and standard industry upper-limit cost of $30 and a $15 margin.

The campaign further explained that a standard barrel contains 159 litres. Using a benchmark total cost of $57 per barrel, the equivalent cost is approximately $0.36 per litre. At an illustrative exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the dollar, this translates to about ₦502 per litre.

Other components of the proposed cost structure include about $5 per barrel for refining, while distribution, transportation and insurance are estimated at about $7 per barrel.

The campaign, however, acknowledged that the calculation is a benchmark rather than a complete refinery cost calculation, noting that a barrel of crude does not produce 159 litres of petrol alone. Instead, it produces a basket of petroleum products, including petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, LPG and other refinery outputs.

Olawepo-Hashim’s campaign has proposed an Energy Stabilisation Tax of approximately ₦104 per litre, bringing the benchmark price close to the proposed ₦605 per litre.

The Accord candidate said the broader objective was to reduce the underlying cost of Nigeria’s petroleum value chain through lower crude production costs, efficient domestic refining, improved infrastructure and exchange-rate stability.

He called for an independent forensic audit of the entire petroleum value chain, covering crude exploration and production, contracting, procurement, security, transportation, refining, storage, insurance, pipelines and distribution.

He said the audit should establish the actual cost of producing and delivering petroleum products instead of automatically relying on international benchmark prices.

“Show Nigerians the books. Publish the production cost. Publish refinery cost. Publish transportation. Publish insurance. Publish every margin. Let the data speak,” he said.

Olawepo-Hashim also questioned whether Nigerians should automatically bear every international opportunity cost attached to crude produced within the country.

He argued that Nigeria should distinguish between the actual cost of producing energy domestically and the international market value of the resource.

The Accord candidate described the conventional justification for fuel subsidy removal as “accounting magic,” arguing that selling a domestically produced product below an international opportunity price does not, by itself, establish that the government is subsidising the product.

He said Nigeria’s growing refining capacity provides an opportunity to fundamentally change the country’s petroleum economics.

Olawepo-Hashim proposed greater support for large-scale and modular refineries, regional refining facilities, petrochemical plants, storage infrastructure and crude evacuation systems.

According to him, domestic refining should go beyond eliminating fuel imports by lowering energy costs, retaining more value within Nigeria and creating a platform for industrialisation.

“We must stop exporting cheap energy and importing expensive products. Nigeria must refine more, manufacture more and export more value-added energy products,” he said.

The presidential candidate, however, cautioned that increased refinery capacity alone would not solve Nigeria’s energy challenge if domestic refineries could not obtain adequate crude at competitive prices.

Exchange Rate Component

Olawepo-Hashim identified exchange-rate stability as another major component of his proposal.

He proposed an exchange-rate range of approximately ₦525 to ₦700 to the dollar, arguing that a stronger and more stable naira would reduce the domestic cost of imported equipment, technology and other dollar-linked inputs used across the energy sector.

He said the combination of lower crude production costs, efficient domestic refining and a stronger naira could eventually bring petrol prices down to between ₦200 and ₦300 per litre.

Olawepo-Hashim stressed that the objective was not merely to make petrol cheaper but to ensure that lower energy costs translate into reduced costs of transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, mining and other productive activities.

He argued that government should ultimately generate more revenue from an expanding productive economy rather than depend heavily on high energy prices.

He said: “The best revenue strategy is not to make everything expensive. It is to make Nigerians more productive and her manufacturers more competitive.”

Olawepo-Hashim said the 2027 presidential election should compel Nigerians to examine competing economic models rather than focus solely on personalities.

He added that his administration would judge its energy policy not only by the amount of revenue generated from petroleum but also by whether Nigerians become more productive as energy becomes more affordable.

“₦605 is where we start. ₦200–₦300 is where we can go. The route is not magic. It is lower production costs, domestic refining, a stronger naira, greater energy production and a government that understands that affordable energy is an investment in national productivity.”