Osun 2026: Yiaga Africa Says INEC Results Consistent With Polling-Unit Count

• Says 43% turnout reflects voters’ resilience despite pre-election tension

• Raises concerns over vote-buying, BVAS failures and IReV upload delay

• Commends INEC, security agencies for election-day performance

Yiaga Africa has said the results declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in the 2026 Osun State governorship election are consistent with its independent statistical estimates from polling units across the state.

The civil society organisation, however, raised concerns over alleged vote-buying and voter inducement, describing the practices as threats to the integrity of voters’ choices despite the consistency between INEC’s declared results and its independent verification.

The organisation made this known on Sunday while presenting its Process and Results Verification for Transparency (PRVT) statement on the election at Adolak Event Centre, Osogbo.

Yiaga Africa said it deployed 300 observers, 32 mobile observers and 30 LGA results collation observers across the state, with its findings based on reports from 289 of the 300 sampled polling units, representing 96 per cent of the sample.

According to the organisation, its statistical analysis projected that the Accord Party would secure between 50.3 per cent and 54 per cent of the votes, while the African Democratic Congress (ADC) was projected to garner between 1.4 per cent and 2.1 per cent, and the All Progressives Congress (APC) between 43 per cent and 46.8 per cent.

It noted that INEC’s official results — Accord 51.9 per cent, APC 45.2 per cent and ADC 1.7 per cent — fell within the estimated ranges generated by its PRVT methodology.

Yiaga Africa said the consistency indicated that the official results reflected the ballots counted at polling units.

“Had the results been significantly altered at the ward, LGA, or state collation centres, the official figures would have fallen outside Yiaga Africa’s WTV estimated ranges,” the organisation said.

It, however, stressed that the finding specifically addressed the accuracy of the tabulation of polling-unit results and did not eliminate concerns surrounding other aspects of the electoral process.

“Widespread reports of vote buying and voter inducement raise serious concerns about the integrity of voter choice,” it said.

43% turnout

The organisation also said its independent estimate of voter turnout was between 42.5 per cent and 44.8 per cent, noting that INEC’s official turnout figure of 43 per cent fell within its confidence interval.

Yiaga Africa described the turnout as a demonstration of the resilience of Osun voters despite concerns arising from pre-election violence, attacks on Permanent Voter Card collection centres, political tensions and disputes surrounding motor parks.

It said voters not only participated in the election but also stayed back to observe the sorting, counting and announcement of results at polling units.

According to the organisation, such citizen vigilance remained an important deterrent against manipulation of election results.

BVAS, downloadable PVC concerns

On the deployment of technology, Yiaga Africa said the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System was deployed across all polling units, but noted that the device malfunctioned in 20 per cent of the sampled polling units before the problems were resolved.

It said the BVAS functioned properly in 80 per cent of polling units, adding that the widespread technological failures feared after the mock accreditation exercise did not occur at a scale capable of undermining the election.

However, the organisation reported cases where BVAS failed to authenticate the biometric or facial details of elderly voters.

It also highlighted the use of downloadable Permanent Voter Cards introduced under the Electoral Act 2026.

According to Yiaga Africa, voters presented downloadable PVCs for accreditation in 23 per cent of the sampled polling units.

While most voters who presented the downloadable cards were accredited, observers reported that some voters were denied accreditation in seven per cent of polling units where downloadable PVCs were presented.

The organisation said it received a verified report from one polling unit where all voters who presented downloadable PVCs were reportedly denied accreditation.

It further said that in 11 per cent of polling units, some voters whose PVCs had been successfully verified were denied accreditation because the BVAS could not authenticate their fingerprints or facial biometrics.

IReV delay

Yiaga Africa also described the electronic transmission and publication of polling-unit results on INEC’s Result Viewing Portal (IReV) as an important development that strengthened transparency in the election.

It, however, raised concerns over a prolonged interruption in the uploading of results.

According to the organisation, IReV uploads stalled at 3,292 polling-unit results between 8:48 p.m. and 10:00 p.m., leaving 471 results outstanding before transmission resumed at about 11:50 p.m.

It called on INEC to explain the cause of the delay, stressing that public confidence in the results portal depended not only on timely uploads but also on proactive communication whenever technical or operational challenges occurred.

Security agencies commended

Yiaga Africa commended the security agencies for what it described as their generally professional and restrained conduct during the election.

The organisation said the performance was significant given the violence, inflammatory rhetoric and concerns over the neutrality of security agencies that characterised the campaign period.

It said the election demonstrated that strong security deployment could be achieved without excessive interference in the electoral process.

However, it urged security agencies to sustain neutrality and strengthen enforcement against vote-buying, intimidation and electoral violence ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Critical incidents

The organisation also disclosed some incidents recorded during the election.

It reported that at Polling Unit 4, Ada II, Ward 8, Boripe Local Government Area, voters were showing party representatives how they marked their ballot papers.

At Polling Unit 5, Ward 11, also in Boripe LGA, Yiaga Africa reported a clash between supporters of the Accord Party and APC, which led to police intervention and the safe escort of an INEC official and ballot box from the polling unit.

At another polling unit in Boripe, three unidentified men who arrived and began photographing election materials were confronted by voters, leading to a fight. The men were later identified as foreign observers, although the organisation said the name of their group was not established.

In Osogbo LGA, Ward 10, Polling Unit 1, Yiaga Africa said the voter register was initially mixed up with materials meant for another polling unit. Although the issue was subsequently resolved after the INEC office was contacted, the development delayed accreditation, with voting commencing after 11 a.m.

Recommendations for 2027

Yiaga Africa called on INEC to issue uniform guidelines on the acceptance and use of downloadable PVCs for voter accreditation and conduct a comprehensive technical audit of BVAS devices.

It also urged the commission to publish the causes of biometric authentication failures recorded during the election and outline measures to prevent their recurrence.

The organisation called for improved training and supervision of ad hoc election officials and greater consistency in the application of election-day procedures.

For security agencies, Yiaga Africa recommended a review of their deployment strategy ahead of 2027, including joint movement of security personnel, election officials and sensitive election materials from Registration Area Centres to polling units.

It also urged the police to publish a report on its deployment during the Osun election, including the number of arrests made and plans for prosecution, particularly in relation to pre-election violence.

Political parties, it said, should train their polling agents on the Electoral Act 2026, INEC regulations and guidelines, while security agencies, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission should intensify enforcement against vote-buying and voter inducement.

Presenting the statement, Chair of Yiaga Africa’s 2026 Osun Election Observation Mission, Dr Asmau Maikudi, said the organisation would release a comprehensive report containing additional data and recommendations.

The Executive Director of Yiaga Africa, Samson Itodo, was also present at the event.

Yiaga Africa said the lessons from Osun should be translated into institutional standards ahead of the 2027 general elections, particularly as INEC would be required to replicate the level of operational preparedness across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.