Political Events That Will Shape 2025

As the New Year takes off, the political landscape, like every other sector is gearing for a flurry of activities. ONYEKACHI EZE looks at some events that will shape Nigeria and world politics in 2025

The Anambra State governorship election, the end of tenure of the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, inauguration of Donald Trump as American President, and the presidential election in Belarus, are some of the political events that will shape Nigeria and world in 2025. Indeed, the year will be action packed politically, both in Nigeria and globally.

The previous year however, ended with heightened tension in Nigeria over tax reform bills before Nigeria’s National Assembly. In world politics, it was the rejection of Trump’s appeal by the Second Circuit Court of Appeals panel, against his earlier conviction of sexual abuse of E. Jean Carroll, a magazine columnist in the mid-1990s, as well as the warrant of arrest issued by South Korean court for the suspended president Yoon Suk Yeol. Suk Yeol was impeached by the National Assembly on December 14, over failed attempt to impose martial law in the country.

The tax reforms controversy in Nigeria continued with verbal exchange between the presidency and Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Governors’ Forum Bala Mohammed.

Governor Mohammed was quoted to have criticised President Bola Tinubu for his insistence to go ahead with the tax reforms, which he said are biased and favour certain regions over others.

The governor reportedly warned that the president’s insistence “calls for anarchy,” adding, “As the head of the federation, President Tinubu must listen to us as federating units. He should avoid an attitude of impunity that suggests the reforms will proceed no matter our concerns.”

The bills have divided the country along regional lines. State governors and groups in the north rejected the tax reform bills, while the South was stoutly in support. The bills are the major issues that will engage the National Assembly after the yuletide holidays.

The tension in the nation’s polity is expected to heighten in 2025 with barely less than one and half years to the 2027 general elections.

Unlike the previous year, Nigeria will only hold one off-cycle election this year. That will be in Anambra State. The timetable and schedule of the election was released last year by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

INEC Chairman Prof. Yakubu, who issued the timetable on October 17, 2024, said the election is scheduled for Saturday, November 8, 2025. Party primaries, according to him, would hold between March 20 and April 10, 2025 while candidate nomination portal will open on April 18 and close on May 12.

“The final list of candidates will be published on 9th June 2025. Campaigns in public by political parties will commence on 11th June 2025 and end at midnight of Thursday 6th November 2025. Voting will take place in all the 5,720 Polling Units across the state on Saturday 8th November 2025,” he stated.

Within this period, INEC said it would conduct a new registration exercise for new voters, which will also involve transfer of voters and the replacement of lost or damaged permanent voter’s cards (PVCs).

Abuja Council Polls
The commission will also this year, release the timetable for the conduct of elections into the six chairmanship and 62 councillorship seats in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Area Councils.

Prof. Yakubu had explained that the elections could not hold this year based on the provision of the Electoral Act 2010 (as amended) which was the subsisting law at the time the elections were held on February 12, 2022.

This is because the National Assembly repealed and re-enacted the Electoral Act 2010 (as amended) as the Electoral Act 2022, which extended the tenure of the Area Councils from three to four years.
“This is one of the important provisions of the Electoral Act 2022. The Act came into force on Friday 25th February 2022, two weeks after the last Area Council elections in the FCT.

“By the time the elected Chairmen and Councilors were sworn-in four months later on 14th June 2022, they took their oath of allegiance and oath of office on the basis of the new electoral Act (i.e. the Electoral Act 2022) which provides for a four-year tenure. Consequently, their tenure therefore expires in June 2026,” he explained.

Senate and Rep By-elections
Abuja Area Council election is the only local council election INEC is authorised by law to conduct. However, the commission will conduct bye-elections into some vacant seats in both state and national legislative houses, including Anambra South senatorial seat, which became vacant as a result of the death of former occupant, Senator Ifeanyi Ubah, as well as Edo Central following the election of Monday Okpebhole as Edo State governor.

Four seats in the House of Representatives have also been declared vacant by the Speaker Tajudeen Abbas, and it is expected that INEC will conduct bye-election to fill the vacancies. These are Ovia Federal Constituency of Edo State; Garki/Babura Federal Constituency of Jigawa State; Chicken/Kahuku Federal Constituency of Kaduna State and Ibadan North Federal Constituency of Oyo State.

In Ovia federal constituency, the former member Dennis Idahosa, was elected deputy governor of Edo State, while the vacancy in the other three constituencies was as a result of death.

The tenure of Prof. Yakubu as INEC Chairman will end this year. He was appointed by former President Mohammadu Buhari in 2015, for the first term of five years. This was renewed in 2020, making him the first Nigeria’s chief electoral officer to serve two terms in office, and the second to conduct two general elections.

Though there has been a discordant tune, the merger talks among key opposition parties will gain traction this year. Former presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNP) Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, denied the rumoured power sharing between Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Peter Obi of Labour Party and himself, in an attempt to oust President Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), in 2027.

But Obi neither denied nor confirmed the rumour at a press conference last Thursday. The former LP candidate, in response to a reporter’s question, said, “Everybody who means well should come together to get the country to work. Let’s build this country. None of us is going to be here forever. Those who did it yesterday are no more here. The country is collapsing.”
Obi however expressed worry that political leaders are so occupied about election and power capture while Nigerians are dying of hunger.

“For me what is important today is Nigeria. We have people who are dying because of a bag of rice; half bag of beans. People are dying. I was in IDP camp, people can’t afford basic (things), and you are talking 2027. That is not what I am occupied with. I am preoccupied with the urgency of today. Let people put food on their table,” he added.

No doubt, opposition parties will continue their rebuilding process towards 2027 general elections. Leading opposition party, the PDP, will hold its national convention in December this year to elect another set of National Working Committee (NWC). But before then, the gladiators in the vacant national chairmanship position of the party will continue their political horse trading.

On December 20 last year, the camp loyal to the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Nyesom Wike, recorded an upset when Court of Appeal Enugu Division, sacked Senator Samuel Anyanwu as PDP National Secretary and ordered former National Youth Leader Sunday Ude-Okoye, to takeover. Ude-Okoye has announced that he has resumed in accordance with the court order.

The power tussle in Rivers State is exacerbating instead of abating. State governor Sim Fubura, still presented the N1.188 trillion 2025 budget to the four-member Oko Jumbo-led House of Assembly despite the protest by the other faction led by Martins Chile Amaewhule. The budget was expeditiously passed and was assented to by the governor. The political crisis in the state is expected to be intensified this year as the different factions would like to consolidate their positions ahead next year’s party primaries.

Trump’s first steps
Trump’s conviction just three weeks to his swearing in on January 20 as America’s president, and the row within his nominated advisers will definitely engage political discussions in the New Year. The world is on the edge since Trump won reelection on November 4 last year. His cabinet nominees, including Elon Musk, have been attracting reactions within the United States. Trump’s threat to deport illegal immigrants is generating concerns.

The president-elect’s first four years in office between 2016 and 2020 upset the world politics. His second coming is creating apprehension as well.
South Korean Corruption Investigation Office is investigating Yoon for unexpectedly imposing martial law on December 3 last year. The office applied for an arrest warrant after Yoon ignored three summonses to appear for questioning.

Acting President Han Duck Soo, was equally impeached by the parliament barely two weeks after Yoon was removed. At the moment, Choi Sang Mok has been acting president.

South Korea has been in political crisis since Yoon’s botched attempt to institute martial law, which was rescinded few hours later following massive public resistance.

The January 26 presidential election in Belarus, which will see President Alexander Lukashenko secure seventh term in office is leading to crackdown on the opposition, including the clergy. A 64-year old Catholic priest, Rev Akalatovich, was on Monday convicted of high treason for criticising the government and was sentenced to 11 years in prison. This was seen as politically motivated charges, and the priest, according to Viasna Human Rights Centre is among the 1,265 political prisoners in the country.

The group’s representative, Pavel Sapelka believes that the severe sentence against the priest “aims to intimidate and silence hundreds of other priests ahead of January’s presidential election.”

Lukashenko, who describes himself as ” Orthodox atheist,” has held power in Belarus for nearly 30 years. He is one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest allies. In February 2022, he allowed Russia to use Belarusian territory to deploy troops into Ukraine and to station some tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

Source: New Telegraph