Dangote Refinery: Nigeria May Miss Generational Opportunities Owing To Policy Failure – Energy Expert

-Outlines Urgent Fixes

Multidimensional energy expert and Executive Director of the Foundation for Peace Professionals (PeacePro), Abdulrazaq Hamzat, has warned that Nigeria risks missing a historic global energy opportunity due to policy failures, regulatory friction, and inconsistent crude supply, which have constrained the 650,000 barrel per day Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

Hamzat made the comments in a press statement on Friday, citing energy intelligence firm Kpler, which reported that refinery shutdowns across Europe and North America have permanently removed between 800,000 and 900,000 barrels per day of refining capacity, structurally tightening global fuel markets.

The closures have increased reliance on late cycle mega refineries such as Dangote’s plant and Mexico’s Dos Bocas refinery.

“This is not a refinery problem; it is a policy problem,” Hamzat said.

“Nigeria built a facility capable of shaping regional fuel markets at a time when Europe and North America are exiting refining, but inconsistent crude supply, weak policy execution and regulatory uncertainty have prevented it from operating at full strength.”

Dangote refinery has operated at about 60–65 per cent capacity, largely due to inconsistent crude deliveries from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC).

The Federal Executive Council approved a naira for crude framework in 2024 to prioritise domestic refining, but implementation has been inadequate.

Enforcement of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation under the Petroleum Industry Act remains uneven, and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has not published verified supply volumes to the refinery.

Hamzat also highlighted mechanical issues at the Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracking (RFCC) unit, which are exacerbated by fluctuating crude quality and regulatory uncertainty around pricing, logistics, and export approvals managed by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

Kpler estimates that at full capacity, Dangote refinery could supply 300,000 bpd of gasoline, 150,000 bpd of gasoil, and 140,000 bpd of jet fuel, volumes capable of easing Atlantic Basin tightness and boosting Nigeria’s export revenues.

The ongoing RFCC corrective shutdown has been described by Kpler as a pivotal inflection point, with a successful restart potentially moving Dangote from marginal participation to structural relevance in global fuel markets by mid-2026.

Hamzat outlined seven urgent actions the Federal Government must take to unlock Dangote’s potential:

Consistent Crude Supply: NNPC must deliver uninterrupted volumes to meet full capacity, enforced under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation.

Operational Coordination: Create a federal inter agency taskforce including NNPC, NUPRC, NMDPRA, and Dangote management to synchronise logistics and throughput.

Regulatory Clarity: NMDPRA must fast track export, pricing, and product evacuation approvals.

Technical Repairs: Prioritise mechanical fixes at the RFCC unit and other bottlenecks with international technical support if needed.

Transparent Monitoring: Publish weekly performance reports verified by independent auditors.

Market Leveraging Support: Facilitate exports to Atlantic Basin markets to convert refinery output into foreign exchange and influence.

Remove Policy Conflicts: Align directives across NNPC, NUPRC, NMDPRA, and Ministry of Petroleum for coherent, predictable governance.

“The world has shifted,” Hamzat said. “If Nigeria does not fix its internal bottlenecks, this refinery will exist without influence, and the country will remain a fuel importer in a seller’s market.”