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Osun 2018: Tinubu, Aregbesola Should Avoid ‘Osun West Bye Election’ Scenario



To say the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state of Osun is facing a turbulence period is an understatement. The party is on the verge of self destruction and devastating embarrassment on the September 22, 2018 governorship election in the state. The government of the APC, led by the quintessential, achiever and uncommon Governor Rauf Aregbesola, has no doubt transformed Osun state beyond the imagination of the cynical. Aregbesola has successfully written his name with gold in the history book of the people of the state with the unprecedented infrastructural development, friendly socio-economic policy, simplicity and accessibility. No doubt, Aregbesola is loved by the people of the state.

But, the sweetening, joyful and acceptable administration might end in a very bad taste if care is not taken in the forthcoming governorship election. Both Aregbesola and his party may play into the hands of opposition deliberately; and thereby regrettably stop the development of the state. The era of imposition of candidate on the electorate is gone; at least, the last bye-election in Osun West Senatorial District has proved that to be true.

From available information, it is no longer news that the National Leader of the party, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu is vehemently pushing his cousin, Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola who is the Chief of Staff to Aregbesola, to succeed the governor. Tinubu had reportedly threatened that he would not fund the Osun governorship election if Aregbesola failed to secure the APC’s governorship ticket for Oyetola. Oyetola, who hails from Iragbiji, Boripe Local Government in Osun Central Senatorial District is not known to majority of the APC members, and by extension the general public until his governorship aspiration started to gather momentum.

Aregbesola has been finding it difficult to sell Oyetola to the party members, not even the general electorate now. To cut the story short, majority of party members in the state do not support Oyetola’s aspiration; this is evident in some of his outings. I witnessed his last outing in Osogbo when he stood in an open roof jeep, waving the broom in his hand with no response from passersby, commuters and traders on the road sides. Oyetola has not in any of his outings pulled Senatorial aspirant crowd, not to talk of governorship horde. Another fact is ‘Ileri Oluwa’ did not have quality crowd, this is subjected to analysis and observation from discerning minds. And his supporters could not produce five delegates in each of their various wards; they are just deceiving the innocent man. Even in Iragbiji, his hometown, Alhaji Oyetola is not popular. This is an incontrovertible fact.

Besides, governorship aspirants and larger per cent of the APC members in Osun West Senatorial district of Osun are poised for war; they want the zone to produce Aregbesola’s successor. The last time the zone had governor was in 1992. The zone is due to produce the next governor of the state in a fair and altruistic democratic setting.

APC Elders Caucus has declared that Osun West must produce the next governor of the state. People believe that the ‘agba Osun APC’ would not talk without the clearance of Chief Bisi Akande, former APC National Chairman. The Agba Osun stance on ‘Osun West Agenda’ has added salt to the injury of Oyetola’s aspiration. The APC elders believe that zoning the governorship ticket to Osun West would be an easy ride for the party to win the election, they do not even care where and who Aregbesola pick in the zone as his anointed aspirant.

Several opinion polls conducted by individuals and organizations within and outside Osun did not favour Oyetola. If this is not acceptable to Tinubu, Aregbesola and Oyetola, they should conduct opinion polls and make the result available to the public.

In spite of the seeming rejection of Alhaji Oyetola’s aspiration, both Tinubu and Aregbesola are alleged of making move to manipulate the coming primary in favour of Oyetola. That allegation made me to write this advice.

Tinubu is a politician I respect. I do not want him to fall from his highly placed position and I do not want his political empire to crumble. Aregbesola as well is a governor I will continue to support because of his performance, but we must not all shy away from telling these two great men the truth. Both Aregbesola and Tinubu should remember that this is how they lost Ondo APC governorship ticket to Governor Rotimi Akeredolu when they made attempt to impose Segun Abraham on the party.

Of recent is the Osun West Bye election where Aregbesola imposed Senator Mudasiru Hussein on the party against advice and convincing political analysis. APC members voted against the party and party leaders let loose their guards deliberately. Not only that the APC lost the election, but lost all his strong hold, including Iwo, and won only Ejigbo local government where Hussein hails from.

This is enough lesson for both Tinubu and Aregbesola. The political situation on ground did not favour Oyetola and any attempt to impose him on the party will spell doom for the APC.  Many spiritualists told me that the APC would win the Osun West Bye election then, but the prophecy did not come to pass. At the same time, many spiritual consultants might have been deceiving Tinubu, Aregbesola and the ‘Ileri Oluwa’ team, but there is more to meet the eye. What is on ground is a clear message that Tinubu and Aregbesola should think twice and heed the advice of sincere politicians who love them and who  do not want Osun to fall to the hand of the opposition PDP. Few politicians who are after what they will personally gain from the Chief of Staff’s aspiration are misinforming and misleading the governor. The time to be cautious is now!

I am Debo Ogunleye from  Ilesa, Osun State.

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